RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: To explore the value of machine learning models based on MRI radiomics and automated habitat analysis in predicting bone metastasis and high-grade pathological Gleason scores in prostate cancer.

METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled 214 patients with pathologically diagnosed prostate cancer from May 2013 to January 2025, including 93 cases with bone metastasis and 159 cases with high-grade Gleason scores. Clinical, pathological and MRI data were collected. An nnUNet model automatically segmented the prostate in MRI scans. K-means clustering identified subregions within the entire prostate in T2-FS images. Senior radiologists manually segmented regions of interest (ROIs) in prostate lesions. Radiomics features were extracted from these habitat subregions and lesion ROIs. These features combined with clinical features were utilized to build multiple machine learning classifiers to predict bone metastasis and high-grade Gleason scores while a K-means clustering method was applied to obtain habitat subregions within the whole prostate. Finally, the models underwent interpretable analysis based on feature importance.

RESULTS: The nnUNet model achieved a mean Dice coefficient of 0.970 for segmentation. Habitat analysis using 2 clusters yielded the highest average silhouette coefficient (0.57). Machine learning models based on a combination of lesion radiomics, habitat radiomics, and clinical features achieved the best performance in both prediction tasks. The Extra Trees Classifier achieved the highest AUC (0.900) for predicting bone metastasis, while the CatBoost Classifier performed best (AUC 0.895) for predicting high-grade Gleason scores. The interpretability analysis of the optimal models showed that the PSA clinical feature was crucial for predictions, while both habitat radiomics and lesion radiomics also played important roles.

CONCLUSION: The study proposed an automated prostate habitat analysis for prostate cancer, enabling a comprehensive analysis of tumor heterogeneity. The machine learning models developed achieved excellent performance in predicting the risk of bone metastasis and high-grade Gleason scores in prostate cancer. This approach overcomes the limitations of manual feature extraction, and the inadequate analysis of heterogeneity often encountered in traditional radiomics, thereby improving model performance.